Saturday, April 17, 2010

NBA Postseason Preview

1 Cleveland Cavaliers
vs
8 Chicago Bulls

Cleveland
The Cavs bring the best record in the league to the playoffs with them, and a determination to avenge last years loss to the Magic in the Conference Finals. New faces Antawn Jamison and Shaquille O'Neal were brought in for this time of year only. Jamison to be the reliable second scorer Cleveland hasn't had in years and Shaq to guard the likes of Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum. Then there's also that LeBron kid, who said that the Bulls would see a 'different animal' in these playoffs. Watch out Chicago.

Chicago
The strong play of Derrick Rose and the return of Joakim Noah from injury allowed the Bulls to scrape into the playoffs. This team does have playoff experience from last years epic 7-game series with Boston, however key players Ben Gordon and John Salmons, who carried Chicago in much of that series, have moved on to other teams. Kirk Hinrich is playing solid basketball, as usual, and Taj Gibson has proven he can play in the frontcourt along with Noah.

Key Matchup - Luol Deng vs LeBron James
Since it is doubtful that anybody on the planet can guard LeBron, the goal becomes simply slowing him down, which might be an impossible task for Deng. LeBron will be able to get anywhere on the court, while shutting down Deng on the other end with his ever improving defense.

X-Factor - Bench Play
While both teams have solid starting lineups, the bench is what sets the Cavs apart. Cleveland knows it will get production from Varajao, Big Z, Delonte West, and Daniel Gibson. Can Chicago get anything from Flip Murray, James Johnson, and Brad Miller?

Prediction
Cavs in 5

2 Orlando Magic
vs
7 Charlotte Bobcats

Orlando
The Magic began the year with one goal in mind: return to the championship and finish with a ring. The addition of Matt Barnes helped to bring toughness and perimeter defense that Orlando lacked last year, while Vince Carter has filled the scoring and playmaking void left by Hedo Turkoglu. Dwight Howard is a force that few teams can contain on either end of the court.

Charlotte
This is the Bobcats first appearance in the playoff, made possible by the trade for Stephen Jackson at the beginning of the year. Jackson combines with Gerald Wallace and Boris Diaw to form one of the most versatile lineup in the league, with each of those players capable of playing multiple positions. Tyson Chandler left the Bobcats game Wednesday night after landing hard on his elbow and hip. X-rays were negative, but this may limit his playoff minutes and effectiveness.

Key Matchup - Dwight Howard vs Charlotte's Bigs
The Bobcats do not have anybody capable of guarding Dwight, especially with the injury to Chandler. If Dwight demands the ball in the post, instead of disappearing while his teammates jack up threes as he has been known to do, he will dominate this series and end it swiftly.

X-Factor - Bobcats perimeter defense
The three point shooting of the Magic will make or break them in the playoffs. Larry Brown turned the Bobcats into one of the best defensive teams in the league this year, if he can get them to crowd the likes of Lewis, Carter, Barnes, and Redick then Charlotte will have a chance to steal a few games.

Prediction
Magic in 5

3 Atlanta Hawks
vs
6 Milwaukee Bucks

Atlanta
Still holding distinction of most athletic team in the league, the Hawks have built on that athleticism to become one of the top teams in the East. The addition of Jamal Crawford gives Atlanta energy and scoring off the bench, along with a fearless crunch time shooter. The frontcourt tandem of Al Horford and Josh Smith is one of the best in the league at rebounding, defending, and blocking shots.

Milwaukee
Two weeks ago the Bucks were the team that nobody in the East wanted to see in the first round of the playoffs. Since the injury to Andrew Bogut, that sentiment has cooled off, but the Bucks haven't. Milwaukee has won four of six since losing Bogut, with veteran Kurt Thomas and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute filling in and doing a good job defensively. The offense, however, has become extremely perimeter oriented, with Brandon Jennings, John Salmons, and Carlos Delfino shouldering much of the load. Veterans Luke Ridnour and Jerry Stackhouse provide solid minutes off the bench.

Key Matchup - Brandon Jennings vs Jamal Crawford
It is the first time in the playoffs for both of these players, and while each has been spectacular during the regular season, this is a different brand of basketball. Each of these players has the ability to shoot their team into or out of a series; which one will take (and make) the right shots at the right times could be the deciding factor in the series.

X-Factor - Ersan Ilyasova
The 'other' rookie on the Bucks has shown that he can pick up some of the scoring slack left by Bogut's injury. Ilyasova has scored 13 ppg in Milwaukee's four wins and just 7.5 ppg in the two losses after Bogut went down. He is the only offensive post presence that the Bucks have and his scoring would take pressure off of the guards, who occasionally try to do too much.

Prediction
Atlanta in 6

4 Boston Celtics
vs
5 Miami Heat

Boston
Boston has limped into the playoffs nursing injuries, bad chemistry, and old age. The Celtics struggled to find a rhythm down the stretch, as their defense has been poor (opponents have scored over 100 in 8 of the last 9 games) and the offense hasn't been good enough to compensate. The Big Three are aging and have sputtered a bit lately, while the bench hasn't produced well enough to be counted on in the playoffs. Rajon Rondo has been the teams best player, but on a team with the likes of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, that isn't a good thing.

Miami
The Heat are clicking on every level right now, winning 12 of their last 13 games. Dwayne Wade has been awesome, but it is the role players that have stepped in to give the Heat a boost. Scoring from Michael Beasley and Quentin Richardson, and solid inside play from Jermaine O'Neal and Udonis Haslem make this team a difficult matchup.

Key Matchup - Rajon Rondo vs Mario Chalmers and Carlos Arroyo
Point guard play will have a large impact on the outcome of this series. As previously stated, Rondo has been the best player on the Celtics, while point guard has been the weakest position for the Heat. Will either Chalmers or Arroyo be able to prevent Rondo from scoring and setting up his teammates? It is highly likely that Rondo could average 17+ points and 12+ assists in this series. (Note - disregard all of this if Wade takes on the task of guarding Rondo)

X-Factor - Dwayne Wade
I know it seems like a cop-out, but Wade has the ability to take over a playoff series. If he decides that he won't let the Heat lose, then he can carry them to a series win as he has shown in the past.

Prediction
Miami in 6

1 Los Angeles Lakers
vs
8 Oklahoma City Thunder

Los Angeles
The Lakers have lost 7 of their last 11 games heading into the postseason, with the biggest problem seeming to be a lack of intensity (missing Andrew Bynum and Kobe for a few games doesn't help either). The defending champs have been coasting for a while now, and it remains to be seen if they can flip the proverbial switch now that the playoffs are here. The champs switched out Ariza for Artest hoping for a shutdown defender, and while Artest has slowed a bit, he can still defend well when he is properly motivated.

Oklahoma City
The Thunder are one of the most exciting teams in the League to watch. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Jeff Green form an extremely athletic and talented top three that are backed by solid bench players. James Harden can ball and will be a solid pro in the years to come, while Eric Maynor is the best pure point guard that can be found coming off of the bench. OKC also has a solid collection of big men, the most intriguing of whom (Serge Ibaka) has shown the potential to be a great defensive center. The biggest knock on this team is lack of experience, but they make up for it with a collective swagger of a team that expects to win games.

Key Matchup - Russell Westbrook vs LA point guards
It is highly doubtful that Derek Fisher can stay in from of Westbrook for long past the opening tip, so how will young backups Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar fare? If Kobe ends up guarding Westbrook, can the Thunder's 2 guards take advantage and score on Fisher? A big series for Westbrook would be huge for OKC, and conversely, shutting down Westbrook and not giving the Thunder a second scoring option would give the defending champs an enormous advantage.

X-Factor - Andrew Bynum's Health
If a healthy Bynum plays, there is very little chance that the Thunder can win this series. Playing Bynum allows Pau Gasol to switch to power forward, forming one of the tallest front lines in the NBA. The Thunder's best lineup is small, with Jeff Green at the 4, but he would get abused by Gasol in the post. Anytime Bynum and Pau can be on the court there will be huge matchup problems for the Thunder.

Prediction
LA in 6

2 Dallas Mavericks
vs
7 San Antonio Spurs

Dallas
The Mavericks have been on a tear ever since trading for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood. Butler has been the reliable scorer that Josh Howard never turned into, while Haywood gives Dallas a younger, taller version of starting center, Erick Dampier. Jason Kidd defies age and continues to play great basketball, and Dirk is Dirk. This is one of the most talented teams in the NBA and they are built for a deep playoff run.

San Antonio
Tim Duncan and Co. are getting healthy at just the right time, which is bad news for the Mavericks. The combination veterans with championship experience and energetic young players is nearly perfect. Duncan, Ginobli and Parker all have rings, while Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess are no strangers to the playoffs either. Recent injuries to Parker have allowed George Hill to mature as he received extra playing time and DeJuan Blair has been outstanding every time he is on the floor.

Key Matchup - Jason Terry vs Manu Ginobli
Assuming Manu returns to the bench, the top sub from each of these teams will be the last two Sixth Man of the Year award winners. Both teams rely on their respective player for energy and scoring off of the bench, and whichever player can provide it more consistently could swing the series.

X-Factor - Richard Jefferson
When Jefferson was traded to the Spurs, many labeled them as the team to beat in the entire league. While those expectations may have been a bit lofty, Jefferson's presence hasn't given quite the boost that was expected. Jefferson can silence all his critics with a solid playoff showing. If he can be the scorer that he has been in the past, then he gives the Spurs an extra dimension that would make them extremely tough to beat.

Prediction
Dallas in 7

3 Phoenix Suns
vs
6 Portland Trailblazers

Phoenix
The Suns blazed through the second half of the season (23-6 since the All-Star break) to the three seed. Steve Nash has been his usual self, leading this team with expert passing, great leadership, and stellar shooting percentages. Amare Stoudemire responded to all the trade talks by averaging nearly 27 points on 56% shooting and 9.6 boards in the last two months of the season. The real reason for the Suns success has been *gasp* defense. Phoenix has moved from one of the leagues bottom defenses to the middle of the pack, which combines with their offense (best in the league) to form a dangerous combination (top 5 in point differential).

Portland
The TrailBlazers have struggled past a myriad of injuries to make it into the playoffs, only to be stripped of their best player for at least the first series. Brandon Roy will have surgery to repair a torn meniscus, leaving Portland searching to replace his production. They will need increased contributions from frontcourt players LaMarcus Aldridge and Marcus Camby, while veteran point guard Andre Miller now seems like an excellent free agent pickup this offseason. Miller will need to combine with Rudy Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless to account for Roy's lost playmaking and outside scoring.

Key Matchup - Suns Bigs vs Blazers Bigs
Once a weakness due to season ending injuries to Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla, the Blazers froncourt has been bolstered through a trade for veteran Marcus Camby. Camby and Aldridge could take advantage of a Suns frontcourt that is without its top post defender in Robin Lopez. If Portland can beat up the Suns down low, and possibly get Stoudemire in foul trouble, then they have a shot at extending this series.

X-Factor - Rudy Fernandez
The best thing about Brandon Roy being injured is that the world gets to see a lot of my favorite current NBA player, Rudy Fernandez. Fernandez will start at shooting guard for the Blazers, and they will need him to play well to have chance at winning this series. 'Rudy Buckets' is a very athletic player who can play above the rim, shoot the three, and create for his teammates. A good showing in this series may just allow the Blazers to forget about what they are missing in Roy, and give them a chance at upsetting the Suns in round 1.

Prediction
Phoenix in 5

4 Denver Nuggets
vs
5 Utah Jazz

Denver
The Nuggets enter the playoffs a bit disappointed. After losing to the Lakers in a tough series last year, the goal was to have a solid regular season and obtain home court advantage throughout the playoffs; now the Nuggets may only have if for the first round. Carmelo Anthony can score from anywhere on the court, and Chauncey Billups is one of the best game managers in the league. J.R. Smith is the streakiest shooter in the NBA and can make or break the Nuggets this year. The frontcourt of Nene, Kenyon Martin, and Chris Anderson is solid, but not spectacular.

Utah
The Jazz were in position to be as high as the two seed a week ago and now don't even have home court advantage for the first round. Regardless, any Jerry Sloan team is going to be solid defensively and execute well on offense. Deron Williams has complete control of this team, and it often goes as he goes. Carlos Boozer is a presence in the post, but backup Paul Milsap is not too shabby either. The scoring from the remaining players can be a mystery from game to game, with any player capable of going for anywhere from 0 to 20 points in a game. The offense is predicated on the pick and roll, and how well the Nuggets defend this will impact this series in a large way. It also looks as if perennially injured Andrei Kirilenko will miss at least the first series.

Key Matchup - Carlos Boozer's Rib Cage vs Kenyon Martin's Knee
The health of these two players will have a huge influence on the outcome of this series. Both these players play a key role in their teams offenses, and while it looks like Martin will play, Boozer will be a game-time decision. Boozer may be more instrumental to his teams success, but he also has a more talented backup in Paul Milsap, who attack the boards with the best in the league but lacks Boozer's post scoring ability. The availability for one of both of these players could swing a game and with it the series.

X-Factor - J.R. Smith
As was touched on earlier, Smith is a player that can be nonexistent for games at a time, but can also drop 40 without batting an eye. If he gets hot, this series could be over very quickly, because he can be very tough to cool off.

Prediction
Nuggets in 7

4 comments:

  1. chalked except for one 4/5. boo.

    ReplyDelete
  2. nice preview and I loved the Kobe photo. One question, do you really think Eric Maynor is a better pure PG than Darren Collison?

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  3. I know its pretty chalk, but thats just my predictions for this year. I was feeling a Milwaukee upset before Bogut went down, and the Blazers also could have done it, but not without Roy. I think the best chance now is the Spurs, but Dallas is playing the best of almost everybody in the west right now.

    As for Maynor vs Collison, I haven't been able to watch each of them play enough this year to judge effectively. They are definitely the top two, and Collison being able to get some run with the first team really helped him.

    ReplyDelete